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Сколько стоит дог? | Наброс | Мобильная версия
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Сколько стоит дог?
21.12.2013 Аналитика

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Как всегда, в Мосваре — любая подарочная акция — это развод на бабло. Даже при кажущейся демократии с рарами, чтобы получить желаемое, нужно немало заплатить. Я решил подсчитать, сколько же стоит новый крутой дог, в «полном сборе», то бишь М11. Вот, что у меня вышло.

Должен сказать, что расчеты получились грубые, так как полностью просчитать рандом невозможно. Однако, максимальные и минимальные планки стоимости я высчитал, об этом речь пойдет ниже. Для начала, оговорю условия расчетов. Как известно, 1 суперигра стоит 100 мороженок. То есть, чтобы сыграть со Снегуркой вам надо купить 2 больших подарка,а это 300 снежинок, но если вы покупаете медовый подарок, то сразу даются 100 мороженок и суперигра.

Всего на Снегуркином барабане 22 сектора. Из них 2 -15%-ная вероятность дога, 1-20%-ная, 1-50%ная и 1 -100% ная. То есть, в самом худшем случае, вероятность выпадения конкретного «догового» сектора равна для 5 % 1/11, а для 10,20,50,100% — 1/22.   «Жуткий рандом» в моих расчетах — это тот случай, когда сектор с догом выпал один раз из 11 или 22 кручения.

dogm1_fin

Как видно из таблицы, тем, у кого дога не было вообще, потребуется от 2х, до 440 подарков за искры или от 1-го до 220 подарков за мед, чтобы его получить. То есть вам необходимо от 300 до 66000 снежинок,  в медовом эквиваленте —  от 75 до 16500 баночек.;)  Тех, у кого дога не было , и кто хочет собрать дога М11, огорчу: для вас все еще хуже, аккурат в 11 раз.

dogm11_fin

Цифры жуткие, я сам охуел выпал в осадок. На набор дога с нуля максимально нужно будет потратить 726000 снежинок 181500 меда;). Но тем, у кого мраморные доги уже есть, повезло больше: им надо потратиться «всего-то» на 7 улучшений.

dogm4_fin

Для того, чтобы Дог М4 превратился в Дога м11, вам потребуется от 2100 до 462000 снежинок, или от 525 до 115500 банок меда.

Для нищебродов, все-таки есть хоть и эфемерная, возможность получить дога от вас требуется огромное количество везения и король стенок ваш! Ну а Дога м11 себе берут только убертопы и то, скорее для того, чтобы просто выебнуться, что все-таки, они круче.

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26 комментариев

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    хех, исправил

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    с числами определитесь, наркоманы, ато в таблице и в тексте различается.

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  3. МумийТролл


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    Болт, ты чего курил перед написанием статьи, и че у тя за полугодие по математике выходит? :))))

    >>Всего на Снегуркином барабане 22 сектора
    Лопни мои глаз! Я только 20 секторов вижу
    >>Из них 2 -15%-ная вероятность дога
    Лопни мой второй глаз! Я вижу 2 -5%центных!

    Дальше про сбор жуткий сбор М1
    Нихуя не помня приемов высшей математики: распределения гаусса и прочей хуйни, тупо на пальцах как с первого классе считаю, что вижу Шесть секторов с догом!
    Шесть это чуть меньше 1/3 круга, это 30%
    Дальше можно очень грубо прикинуть, что каждый 3тий подарок будет попадать в эти сектора
    Еще можно прикинуть что пусть средний размер приза будет минимум 10% (из линейки 5-5-10-20-50-100), т.е понадобится 10 попаданий. Умножим на 3 получим 30 кручений. Зная сраный мосваровский рандом еще удвоем это требование =60 кручений и это будет типа максимум сколько надо для сборки дога!
    А этот равно всего подарков 60 медовых=4500м или 120 снежных=18000с
    Для нищебродов конечно что 66000 что 18000 - это космос, но все равно хоть гипотетически послаще :)

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    • Луноход


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      >>Лопни мои глаз! Я только 20 секторов вижу
      Ахахах, ты в нижней темке текст тоже не видел. А он - есть. :DDDD

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      • МумийТролл


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        пиздишь! :)
        http://floomby.ru/s2/a4cFNd

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        • Луноход


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          Смысл мне пиздеть-то??? :D
          http://floomby.ru/s1/C4cFBB

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        • Господин ведущий


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          а "наброс" - это что, блять?)) музыка?)

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      Смотри сам. По самому хуевому варианту, я расчитывал, что 1 сектор выпдает раз в 22 кручения. Для 5% вероятность удваивается) Т.е, не 1/22, а 2/22=1/11

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  4. Луноход


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    А чему верить - написанному в таблице или в тексте? :D 115к мёда - слишком шикарно. Да и 462 тысячи снежинок в ступор вогнали - это ж сколько дуэлей надо сделать даже с учетом имеющихся звёздомобил? о_О

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      Тест и таблица совпадают=)) Опечатки две штуки были=)

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      • Луноход


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        Уже совпадают, да. :D
        Я сначала прочитал, не врубился в цифры, потом оценил масштаб трагедии для себя, потом написал, а когда страница обновилась - уже исправлено. :D

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  5. Быдло Ростовское


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    13К мёда обошёлся дог м-11. Выебнулся)

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      Кул!=)

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      Статистика как у всех схожа, с м4 до м11 стоит 10-15к меда, как повезет

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  6. ВАРВАР


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    Вот моя математика: купил 600 маленьких 4 больших за искры и 10 медовых
    Выпало 14 шапок и дог М1

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    • ВАРВАР


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      Хз как считал товарищ болт но у меня получилось следующее: шанс того что при кручении выпадет дог сразу это 1/20=0.05 НО ведь он может и не выпасть))) а может выпасть только 50% или 20%, что складывается в следующих играх и приносит ЦЕЛОГО дога. Путем странных подсчетов вероятностей мат. ожидании и прочей хуеты пришел к выводу что каждое следующее попадание на поле ДОГ увеличивает получение дога на 0.095 или 9,5% то есть вам надо 1/0.095=11 ПОПАДАНИЙ на поля с шансом дога. Полей с догом 6, а всего 20, следовательно вероятность того что выбор падает на поля дога равна 6/20=0.3 или 30%. Составляем пропорцию по которой получаем значение 36.6
      Что это значит? это значит то, что усредненное количество кручений барабана должно быть примерно 37 раз и тогда дог ваш))) Что показывает мой вышеперечисленный дроп, я именно 37 раз крутил барабан)))
      А теперь математика стоимости: в меде 37*75=2775 меда или 11100 снежинок, и это только для дога м1, для м10 = 111к снегу или 27750 медку))

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    • ВАРВАР


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      Вывод: позволить дога м10 может даже не каждый медовик, да и советую эту волну покупать за мед, так как курс снеги мед стал не 1к2 а 1к4

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  7. Простой человек


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    20 искровых, 30 медовых - дог м2 (и 90% до м3) и шапка м-9
    товарища статистика, мля.

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  8. Ёкарный Бабай


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    да кому эта шавка нужна... лего бля...

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    13 за снежинки, 4 за мёд
    10 кручений
    15% дога собрал

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    44 прокрута дог 90 % )) ипаный рандом мосвара))) на хую его вертел

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    Крутил барабан 18 раз.

    Выпадение дога: 50%+20%+10%+5%. Итого дог "типа собран" на 85%
    Шапка собрана: 9 раз + 95% от 10-ой.

    На фоне того, что снежки стали падать всё хуже и хуже. Раньше без проблем собирал 300 штук в день (на 1 покрутку барабана), то теперь в лучше случае штук 200. 200 штук умножаем на количество оставшихся дней до акции а дога - получаем еще 7 раз покрутить барабан осталось. Шансы есть получить хотя бы М1 дога, но не факт, что из 7 раз стрелка барабана упадет хотя бы один раз на 20% от дога. Зная мосваровский рандом может 7 раз вообще выпасть шапка.

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    Тех, у кого дога не было , и кто хочет собрать дога М11, огорчу: для вас все еще хуже, аккурат в 11 раз.
    Те, у кого дога не было, могут собрать его максимум до М10. М11 доступен только для владельцев мраморных догов.

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  13. Нищеброд с VISA


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    Епическая сила! Это сколько надо мёда, чтобы чёрного дога собрать. В жопу такой рар. Жду второй волны.

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  14. _Лелик_


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  15. ПОЧЕТНЫЙ ЛОХ


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    Заебись :) 14 к. меда - дог м-4. Получается одна модификация дога стоит примерно 9 тыс руб.

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